Research
Work in progress
Universal free school meals and work incentives: Lessons from England.
Abstract
This paper analyses the effects of a transition from a means-tested to a universal school-meal programme on parental labour market outcomes. Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, we document that the introduction of the Universal Infant Free School Meals (UIFSM) policy — which provides free meals to children aged 4 to 7 — increased labour supply and reduced inactivity rates among mothers whose children were eligible for the programme, compared to when the same children were older, ineligible for universal free school meals by the programme's design, and therefore subject to means-tested school-meal subsidies. The effects are particularly pronounced for single mothers, those in households where the father is employed and those whose children received free school meals under the means-tested scheme before the introduction of the universal policy. In contrast, no significant effects are observed for fathers. Our findings suggest that the programme strengthens work incentives by removing the risk of losing access to free school meals when mothers enter employment.Labor market dynamics around childbirth: Evidence from Spanish administrative records (with Amaia Ayala-García, Laura Serra-Saurina, and José I. Silva).
Abstract
This paper provides a flow-based account of how labor market states evolve around the birth of a first child in Spain. Using monthly administrative data, we track men and women across five states---full-time employment, part-time employment, registered unemployment, childcare-related non-affiliation (unpaid childcare leave), and other non-affiliation (no employment or benefit income)---over a window spanning the decade before and the decade after a first birth, and model the movements between states with a time-varying five-state Markov chain. Around childbirth, women's full-time employment falls sharply and persistently, with a transitory rise in unemployment and durable increases in part-time work and other non-affiliation. In contrast, men's employment distribution remains largely unchanged. Decomposing each gap into its monthly flows, we find that gender differences in job-finding into full-time employment, rather than separations from it, account for just over half of the full-time gender gap. These differences are already present before birth: over the decade preceding the birth of a first child, both genders' attachment to full-time work rises, and the gender gap in full-time employment widens steadily as birth approaches. We interpret the decomposition as a descriptive accounting exercise and not as evidence of the behavioral mechanisms underlying the gender gaps.The causal effects of mandatory gender equality plans (with Sara Ayllón and Bernat Remolins).
Minimum wage increases, collective bargaining, and job amenities (with Ferran Elias, Ruben Perez-Sanz, and Marc Riudavets-Barcons).
Teleworking and childcare across Europe: Is there a childcare digital divide? (with Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Enza Simeone).
Working papers
Guixeras, X.; Garriga, A.; Ballester, R., Lado, S.; Velazco, J. (2026). Assessing the impact of urban sprawl on the public water supply in Spanish municipalities (2008–2016), mimeo [R&R Utilities Policy].
Abstract
Over the past fifteen years, the debate surrounding the management and provision of municipal public services has increasingly focused on the factors contributing to deficiencies in service delivery. This paper examines the period 2008-2016, which was characterised by the effects of the economic crisis, the implementation of an economic stimulus plan, and subsequent fiscal consolidation, to assess how urban fragmentation influences water supply deficits in Spanish municipalities. Sprawling urban areas, where population centres are dispersed and fragmented, often face distinct challenges in infrastructure development and resource management. Drawing on a comprehensive database of Spanish municipalities and employing econometric techniques, the analysis demonstrates the adverse impact of urban sprawl on public service provision. The results further show significant differences in urban configuration between provinces along the North Atlantic coast and those in Southern Spain. The former present higher levels of fragmentation, which are associated with greater deficiencies in public water provision.Ayllón, S.; Lado, S. (2025). More than just lunch: School-meal subsidies and language proficiency, IZA Discussion Paper no. 17631, EQUALITAS Working Paper no. 80 [R&R Journal of Population Economics]. Dissemination: The Social Observatory, “La Caixa” foundation, Nada es Gratis. [pdf] [pdf]
Abstract
This paper is the first to provide, in the European context, credible causal estimates for the impact on educational achievement of a means-tested programme that subsidises school lunches. We use administrative data from the city of Barcelona for the whole universe of applications to the programme. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we measure the effect of receiving a partial subsidy, as opposed to none; meanwhile a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) strategy allows us to account for the effect of receiving a full subsidy, compared to a partial one. Our results indicate an overall positive effect of the subsidies on educational achievement across all the subjects analysed, with statistically significant estimates only for Catalan language. Heterogeneous results show that those who benefit most are boys who attend large schools and have peers who are, on average, more socio-economically advantaged. The opportunity for subsidy recipients to spend more time at school during lunch, and to communicate and socialise with wealthier and linguistically more competent children is the mechanism that lies behind our main findings.Ayllón, S.; Lado, S. (2025). The causal impact of school-meal programmes on children in developed economies: A meta-analysis, IZA Discussion Paper no. 18042, EQUALITAS Working Paper no. 90 [R&R Journal of Economic Surveys]. [pdf] [pdf]
Abstract
This paper is the first to meta-analyse the literature on the causal effects of school-meal programmes on children's behavioural, health and educational outcomes in developed countries, while addressing potential publication bias and heterogeneity between studies. We create a sample of 2,821 estimates from 42 studies and gather 59 aspects reflecting the context in which each estimate was obtained, including type of data, programme characteristics, student population, estimation method and publication quality, among others. We employ both linear and non-linear techniques to correct for publication bias, and we use Bayesian model averaging to study heterogeneous effects and address model uncertainty. The results are consistent with small publication bias — with the exception of studies devoted to analysing test scores, which appear more selective when reporting results. Once publication bias is accounted for, we find that school-meal programmes in high-income economies have minimal impact on students' behaviour, health and education. Our heterogeneity analysis documents the fact that means-tested programmes and breakfast initiatives yield the greatest benefits for children's outcomes.Ayllón, S.; Brugarolas, P.; Lado, S. (2023). The level of inequality of opportunity in Spain: an estimation using Artificial Intelligence, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Media coverage: El Confidencial, El Confidencial. [pdf]
Journal publications
Ayllón, S.; Brugarolas, P.; Lado, S. (2026). New estimates for inequality of opportunity in Europe using elastic net algorithms, Applied Economics Letters, 33(8): 1256-1260. [link]
Abstract
This paper provides new estimates for inequality of opportunity (IOp) in Europe between 2005 and 2019, using data from EU-SILC and elastic net algorithms. We document three different trends: some countries showed significant improvement over time; others saw a notable increase in IOp; and yet others reversed the rise in inequality post-Great Recession. Importantly, our new machine-learning estimates show consistency with more established approaches.Ayllón, S.; Holmarsdottir, H. B.; Lado, S. (2023). Digitally deprived children in Europe, Child Indicators Research, 16: 1315-1339. Dissemination: Digital Generation Blog. [pdf]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has completely changed the need for internet connectivity and technological devices across the population, but especially among school-aged children. For a large proportion of pupils, access to a connected computer nowadays makes the difference between being able to keep up with their educational development and falling badly behind. This paper provides a detailed account of the digitally deprived children in Europe, according to the latest available wave of the European Union–Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). We find that 5.4% of school-aged children in Europe are digitally deprived and that differences are large across countries. Children that cohabit with low-educated parents, in poverty or in severe material deprivation are those most affected.Ayllón, S.; Lado, S. (2022). Food hardship in the US during the pandemic: What can we learn from real-time data?, Review of Income and Wealth, 68(2): 518-540. [pdf]
Abstract
We study the potential effect of the declaration of the state of emergency, the beginning and end of the stay-at-home orders, and the one-off Economic Impact Payments on food hardship in the US during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. We use daily data from Google Trends for the search term “foodbank” and document the development of a hunger crisis, as indicated by the number of individuals who need to locate a food pantry through the internet. The demand for charitable food handouts begins to decrease once families start receiving the stimulus payments, but the biggest fall comes when economic activity resumes after the lifting of the lockdown orders. Our estimates indicate that the increased need for emergency help among vulnerable families lasted for at least 10 weeks during the first wave of the pandemic, and we argue that real-time data can be useful in predicting such urgency.Chapters in edited volumes
Ayllón, S.; Lado, S.; Symeonaki, M. (2024). Digitally disengaged and digitally unconfident children in Europe in Understanding the everyday digital lives of children and young people, ed. H. B. Holmarsdottir, I. Seland, C. Hyggen, M. Roth, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 27-55 (chapter 2). [pdf]
Abstract
The increasing use of information and communications technologies (ICT) in education has raised concerns about exacerbating existing educational inequalities, particularly for students who lack interest or confidence in using digital devices. Drawing from data of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), this chapter documents the extent to which school-aged children in Europe are digitally disengaged and/or lack digital confidence. We also analyse the socio-economic and demographic characteristics that describe both profiles. By shedding light on these challenges, this research can inform policies and interventions aimed to ensure equitable access and success in digital learning environments.Ayllón, S.; Brugarolas, P.; Lado, S. (2024). ICT use and children’s self-reported life satisfaction in Understanding the everyday digital lives of children and young people, ed. H. B. Holmarsdottir, I. Seland, C. Hyggen, M. Roth, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 239-279 (chapter 9). [pdf]